Lifelike Robots Coming Sooner than you Think
Just how long will it be until you can talk to your home robot just like you would a member of your family and watch it react as if it were human, so much so that you could not even tell if it’s a robot? I don’t mean merely issuing commands to it, but actually “talking” to it. Have a conversation. Ask how “he” or “she” is feeling. And be interested. Not in the lab as a leading edge product, but in your home, and in your neighbor’s home. So what do you think, maybe 50 years? That’s a time frame that gets thrown out quite often by many scientists, researchers and futurists who are supposed to know about these things. How could it be any sooner, after all, after decades of work, we’re just now at the point where robot floor vacs, plastic toy pets and foot tall, metallic humanoids are the state of the art for the consumer. It’s a huge leap to full size, always on, full-sensory, life-like, complex-thinking robots that for all intents and purposes are “alive,” with the exception of a soul. Of course it will be 50 years—at least—right? Wrong. Expect sooner.
I’m telling you that this technology, these “beings,” will arrive sooner than that, considerably sooner. Fifty years may be close, but not fifty calendar years. Huh? I’m talking about fifty years worth of advancement as measured in our current rate of technological progress, which will occur in less than calendar years. You see, the pace of technological advancement progresses exponentially (which expands by repeatedly multiplying by a constant), not linearly (which expands by repeatedly adding a constant). In laymen terms, this means that each year the rate of change is faster than the previous. More technological advancement is performed in the same amount of time as we move forward into the future. Consider the telephone, which took about a half century to attain widespread usage. Contrast with this the later adoption of the cell phone, which took a mere decade. The further into the future, the shorter the time required for a unit of progress. It’s similar in all technologies.
Exponential growth is deceiving, even to the most brilliant of scientists. In the first stage growth is barely indistinguishable from linear growth. The midstage is where the growth rates begin to diverge, but still it may not be identified as becoming exponential. In the final stage, seemingly out of nowhere, the growth rate explodes upwards, leaving many scratching their heads as to how they could have missed the signals earlier. It’s an understandable oversight to be in the midst of the beginnings of a new technology, watching the deployment struggle forward so slowly, and to intuitively carry forward that pace into the future. But, with the luxury of looking in the rear view mirror at technologies that have already reached their critical mass, we can see the examples of exponential growth—every time, with no exception. The rate of change is simply not constant. Never. As just one example, consider the biochemists who in 1990 had just spent an entire year transcribing one ten-thousandth of the human genome. Extrapolating that rate out into the future, even with expected advances in technology and knowledge, would yield estimates of many decades. They would never have believed they would complete the entire genome in just 15 years.
Meet Ray Kurzweil
Is there a scientific basis to all this? Has anyone looked at history to verify this, and come up with a calculation that we can use to plot future progress? Yes. Highly-respected inventor and futurist, Ray Kurweil, most recently of The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The ‘returns,’ such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity—technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.”
Did you catch that? 20,000 years of progress, as measured in “2001 years,” in only 100 years. In this century folks. It’s a bit mind-blowing, but not when you really think it through. Look back at 1901 - 1950 and compare it to 1951 - 2000. The first half century saw discoveries in science and technology undreamed of in the 19th century, and consumers were dizzy from the parade of the resulting new autos, home appliances, radio and television. But when you compare it to the scientific breakthroughs, new high-tech products and life-saving health care regimes of the second half century, it pales in comparison; the “old days” weren’t as advanced as we thought. Dissecting time frames further, you can just as easily compare 1951 - 1975 to 1976 - 2000; we went from mainframe computers in use by relatively few companies and government bodies to the proliferation of microcomputers, cell phones and other electronic devices to the mass consumer. You can similarly compare the 80’s to the 90’s—the first decade saw hobbyist “personal computers” move into the crude and emerging WYSIWYG era, whereas the 90’s saw vastly more powerful and graphically oriented PCs become an essential part of our daily lives and a must for every executive’s desk. In every area, in every century, decade and year, the rate of change in technical advancement is accelerating, and doing so quickly.
So what does the future hold, in particular, for our subject of robotics? Kurzweil predicts that by 2019 a $1,000 computer will be as powerful as the human brain. Ten years later software will arrive to allow computers to routinely pass the Turing Test, which tests the ability of a human to determine if something is human or machine. By 2029, he predicts that debate ensues over the “rights” of Artificial Intelligences, which by then claim to be conscious; non-biological intelligence continues to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is fixed. By 2045, Artificial Intelligences surpasses human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms, taking over all technological development, which humans will no longer even be capable of understanding with their inferior brains. At this time, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines is to begin converting all of the matter in the universe into similar massive computers.
If you think all of this is just too fanciful, I urge you to read about Ray Kurzweil and his long list of scientific accomplishments. And you most definitely should read his book, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
Robotics To Advance Quickly Now
We’ve made mere baby steps in robotics and have a very long way to go. But, don’t despair—the pace will quicken. As it always does, the rate of change will continue to double every ten years. So, look back on the last ten years, 1998 - 2007, and understand that the next ten will see a doubling of that rate of change. Think about how fast that compounds over time. As a fun example, I remember that in my elementary school days that a friend wanted to borrow a nickel and he told me he’d pay me back the next day. I made him the deal that every day that he missed his payment I would double the amount he owed me. He never paid me back, but I do remember that after a week I told him it was then $6.40, two weeks later over $800, three weeks later over $100,000, and 30 days later told him the amount due was now over $53 million. Exponential growth moves very quickly over time.
Although we’ve barely just begun, we’ve created a foundation on which new advancements will arise more quickly. And, think not just in terms of mechanical robots and computer chips. You must add to the mix concurrent advancements in the accelerating fields of nanotechnology and biotechnology, which will play a part in what we now call robotics, but will more often in the future call artificial intelligence. In the time it took us to progress from the Wright Brothers to the moon landing, human and machine will converge, one indistinguishable from the other, though likely not separate at all, in what’s called The Singularity.
The current subject matter in this blog on home robots will seem comically primitive in the very near future. Talking about little metal discs that clean the floor, toy animals that can act like pets, somewhat, until their batteries run out in two hours, and metal humanoids that can move about and crudely speak on command...it reminds me of the days as a child when I created transistor radios with my soldering iron. Even so, it was fun and exciting then, and it feels just as thrilling now. But, our current rate of change is orders of magnitude higher than it was in those days. Get ready for a lot more than just bots running around your home cleaning the kitchen, getting your slippers and making your coffee. Prepare yourself in the short term for lifelike intelligent machines being a necessary part of your life, and in the long term, converging with this vast and powerful intelligence.
Lifelike home robots? Yeah, you bet they’re coming, sooner than you think. In the mean time, we can have still have fun playing with our robotoys.
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